the NASCAR Chase

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Once again, the Cup teams will line up to start the Bank of  America 400 according to the metric because practice and qualifying were canceled due to the weather. That means another race with the teams starting the race with only their notes from the previous run at the track. That could be a good thing, or maybe a bad thing for the way they will line up according to the metric, which puts Kyle Larson on the pole and Chase Briscoe next to him on the front row.

There are reasons this fan thinks starting by the metric is both good and bad for those at the top of the points. If we take a quick look back to the last Cup race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway, two of the top four starters this afternoon drove to second and third place finishes. Daniel Suarez took the win for the Coca-Cola 600, with Denny Hamlin third and Tyler Reddick fourth. Today, Suarez starts fifteenth, Hamlin starts twelfth, and Reddick starts third.

Christopher Bell, who hasn’t had much luck in the Chase since taking the win in the first Chase race five races ago, finished second in the 600. Today, he starts seventeenth. I don’t know if that means much for this race, but with how things have been going for him lately and what he needs today, this fan definitely thinks he needs a win, or at the very least, he needs a really good points day.

Ryan Blaney starts fourth in today’s race. In the 600, he finished seventh. In the Chase so far, he has basically had good finishes and bad finishes. Austin Cindric starts fifth today. Checking on his finish at the 600 shows he had a tough day. He finished thirty-eighth.

William Byron starts sixth in today’s race. At the 600, he finished ninth. Joey Logano starts seventh today; in the 600, he finished eighth. Bubba Wallace starts eighth today; in the 600 he finished twenty-second. Chase Elliott finished thirty-seventh in the 600; Today he starts ninth.

I could go on with this trip down memory lane back to the Coca-Cola 600, but I think I’ve said enough. The reason is what I said earlier about the Cup teams starting today’s race without practice or qualifying, using only their notes from their previous experience at the Charlotte Motor Speedway, and their best guess for how they want the setup to be off the truck. Any adjustments that might have been made in practice and qualifying will now be made during the race. In this fan’s opinion, I am sure they are hoping they were close off the trucks, because what they start with they will be stuck with until they can make adjustments on the normal pit stop or by taking one out of sequence to make those adjustments.  

Another reason I bring all this up is that it was a time when the Chevys and Fords were still playing catch-up to the Toyotas. Well, at least the JGR Toyotas. Since then, the Chevys have been constantly working to improve, and they have. I know Daniel Suarez won the 600 in a Chevy. I won’t say that was a fluke, but in a way it was. I don’t know that anyone expected Suarez to win it, but he did. And he won it in a Chevy ahead of three JGR Toyotas. Those Toyotas were Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Tyler Reddick. On that day, Kyle Larson started eighteenth and finished fifth; Chase Briscoe finished thirty-fourth that same day. Today, Larson and Briscoe start on the front row mostly because of the way they’ve finished last week and the week before. I guess I should include that because of the NASCAR rule book and the metric used when qualifying is not able to be used.

We all have watched as Kyle Larson has taken over the points lead with his not unexpected vast improvement in finishes. Kyle had been showing improvement for the Hendrick Chevys, but was having trouble finishing races where it seemed he should. Chase had been struggling in several ways until a couple of races ago, and now he has finished in the top two in the last two Cup races. To me, that shows a vast improvement by Briscoe. He has always been in the mix, even if it was only in Chase conversations, and many wondered when he might turn things around. It appears he has, and even though he still needs to make up a lot of points, he has to be considered to be a contender now. Especially with him continuing to run up front as he has recently.

So… my question for today’s race isn’t particularly difficult, but it is important. In fact, I think I have more than one question. First, will Kyle Larson continue with his outstanding performance and increase his lead in the points standings? Is Kyle Larson due for an off week? Will the two, Briscoe and Larson, continue running up front as they have the last two weeks, or will another Chase contender take the win and close the gap on Larson and others?

As I said, these aren’t difficult questions, but they do beg an answer. One thing I do know. We will know a whole lot more about all of these questions when this race is in the books…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See you next time…

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

It’s Chase Race Five at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and things are heating up at the top of the standings. I don’t know about you, but this fan can’t believe we’re already at the midpoint of The Chase, and the intensity hasn’t let up for one minute yet.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

I will say this. It’s been an interesting start to the 2026 Chase, and this fifth race will likely be just a continuation of the unexpected. After all, I don’t know many fans who thought Kyle Larson would have the results in the first four races that he did, but he did, and he has been on a good run so far. We all watched him dominate last weekend at Kansas and walk away with a 26-point lead over Denny Hamlin after taking a maximum-points day of 76.

But this is Vegas. The Toyotas took the top five qualifying spots to start the race, and Denny Hamlin took the pole. He was followed by his three JGR teammates, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe. Tyler Reddick, who has been struggling for a while now, showed up with speed this weekend and qualified fifth. I’m not sure how you feel about their show of speed during qualifying, but to this fan, it looks pretty ominous.

The top fourteen qualifiers are all Chasers. The other two Chasers, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, qualified twentieth and twenty-third. The two of them sit fourth and fifth in the points. That may not seem too bad, but I would say they both have their work cut out for themselves if they want to maintain their places or advance further up in the standings. From this fan’s view, they both need really good points days, and Blaney needs them worse. He is ninety-one points behind Larson going into today’s race and can’t afford another bad day at the races. I’m thinking he wants a win in the worst way.

I do find it interesting that the four JGR Toyotas are starting in the top four starting spots. After the way the last two weeks have gone, I guess it should be expected. After all, Denny Hamlin has won the last two races at Vegas, and with his pole starting position, he just might make it three in a row. His teammate, Ty Gibbs, also seems pretty confident about taking the win today and has spoken very positively of his chances of pulling it off. He starts second, next to Hamlin on the front row.

Even though Christopher Bell took the win at the first Chase race at Darlington, he hasn’t been able to make a big impact at follow-ups since. He hasn’t been running all that bad, but he hasn’t been running all that good either. At least, not good enough to take another victory. He runs well on the intermediate tracks, but is still looking for his first victory at Vegas.

Chase Briscoe has definitely had a rough start in the Chase, but he and his team look to have found something, with recent performances, especially last weekend, until he hit the wall several times trying to beat Larson. He finished fourth but still was showing found speed and I wonder if it will carry over to this weekend.

All four of the Hendrick Chevys are starting in the top fifteen. Of them, Kyle Larson starts sixth, and William Byron starts eighth. We all know how Kyle has been running. It just remains to be seen whether or not he continues running as strong as he has started the Chase. He runs well at Vegas, and his chances are as good as any I mentioned so far to have a great points day or take another win. I’m anxious to see how his day goes. William has been struggling a lot in recent times, but much like the rest of his Hendrick teammates, he has been showing a lot of improvement, and this fan can’t help but wonder if today might be his day to get his first win in 2026. Not saying he will, but he was the fastest in practice yesterday.

There are a couple of things to watch out for in today’s race. The biggest may be tire problems. Several drivers did experience tire problems in yesterday’s practice. Now, I’m not saying tires will play a big part in the race. In fact, they may not play a part at all, but since there were problems in practice, everyone will be a little on edge for the possibility.

It is going to be hot and slick, and from my view, it will be important to have good long-run speed to be successful and to run at or near the front at the end of the stages and the end of the race. Although there are several who are very good at managing their tires and fuel, it will be important in this one. Two of the best at it at Vegas are the top two in the points race, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Will it make a difference in today’s race, and will these be the two battling it out in the final laps?

Yeah, that is a definite possibility, but not the only possibility. With most of the Chase competitors starting in the top fifteen, just about anything is possible. That’s not to mention the fact that someone other than one of the Chasers could win. What will that mean for the points? I don’t know, but I can guarantee it could make things even more interesting…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time…

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The NASCAR Cup teams head back to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400. Yeah, it’s another weekend and Chase Race Four. Kansas Speedway has proven itself to be challenging, especially for those competing for the Championship. There isn’t any obvious reason for that. It just seems that when it comes to racing for the Championship at Kansas Speedway, the ones competing for the Championship struggle. I don’t have an explanation for that, and maybe it just seems that way from this fan’s view.

Once again this weekend, practice and qualifying were canceled for the Cup teams. That means Joey Logano and Kyle Larson start on the front row. Well, that is if there are no penalties from pre-race inspections and both of them make it through. A few things are different this weekend, though. Since they will be lining up according to the rulebook, the metric changed this week because it also includes how they finished last weekend. That moved a few of them up closer to the front for starting the race.

So, this fan wonders if that will be a blessing or a curse for those two guys on the front row. I mean, last week Logano won the race; the week before that, Larson won. Remember Christopher Bell took the win in the first Chase Race, and he starts third, first on the second row, this weekend. I can’t help but wonder if that won’t give him a slight advantage for this one. I say that because of how the Toyotas, in particular the JGR Toyotas, have performed on the mile-and-a-half ovals. After all, three of the four JGR Toyotas are starting in the top seven. That could put pressure on the Chevys and Fords and could mean a big change in the points standings, depending on how the Chevys and Fords do against the Toyotas.

Statistically, the Toyotas have performed better than the others on the mile-and-a-half tracks this season, but that gap has tightened over the summer. Ryan Blaney has been the Ford to watch along with the Toyotas, but he is starting twentieth-fifth. That means he has his work cut out for himself. Is it outside the realm of possibilities that he could win? Not at all, but it won’t be easy. He definitely needs a good finish.

Another thing about those three top starters that is pretty obvious, at least to this fan. Bell, Larson, and Logano are the winners of the first three Chase Races. That could spell trouble for the rest of the field today? I suppose it could. With the lineup the way it is, all three of the top starters should also get the best pit stalls, and that could make a difference over the rest, too.  

Ok, I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the top three starters because they’ve won the first three races, but there are a bunch of Chasers that I am sure want to press those top three for the win today. I mean, there’s Carson Hocevar starting fourth, Ty Gibbs fifth, and Denny Hamlin sixth. Of those three, no one wants to turn things around worse than Hamlin. Over the first three races of The Chase, he has bled points every week. Last week, Larson passed him in the points lead by one point. One point isn’t all that much, unless you consider that Larson was seventh in points when The Chase started. Denny hasn’t been running all that bad. He just hasn’t been running all that good.

The thing about The Chase is that a win can really make a big difference in the points battle. Logano and Bell are only sixteen and seventeen points out of first, respectively. If either of them wins today, they could take over the points lead. After them, things get a little more separated. Ty Gibbs is only forty-two points out. Ryan Blaney is just fifty-two points out.

From my view, scoring points is the most important thing on every driver’s mind going into today’s race. Those at the top want to build a little distance between themselves and those behind them. If last week showed the pressure on drivers to perform and get as many points as possible, today’s race is going to be even more aggressive. It is probably good that Blaney and Hocevar worked out their differences over last week’s run-in with each other. With pressure mounting each week, I expect the emotions to increase right along with it. I expect to see even more aggressive driving and moves as The Chase moves forward.

The next four races could tell a lot about whether the Chevys and Fords have gained speed over the dominance the Toyotas have enjoyed for most of this 2026 season. From this fan’s view, it is obvious that both are showing up more competitive against the Toyotas, but it is still anybody’s race to win today. I guess we will see if they still have an advantage over the Fords and Chevys or whether that advantage has basically disappeared. Today’s race could tell us a lot about how the next few races might go and which of the drivers and manufacturers might begin to pull away, points-wise.

I have no idea how things are going to go, but of this I am sure. There is going to be no lack of drama, emotion, and aggression. Hold on tight, folks; things are going to get very interesting…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time…

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The Cup teams take it to the Bristol Motor Speedway for Chase Race Three. Weather canceled qualifying for the Cup teams at Bristol on Friday, so, you know what that means, don’t you? Yeah, that’s correct. The starting lineup will be according to the rulebook. That also means a few interesting things could change how the race goes.

Sometimes, things happen that make a large difference in how things might have gone. Because of the weather situation, Kyle Larson, last week’s winner, starts on the pole and, barring the unforeseen, will likely have the best pit stall. Having that pit stall could be an even greater advantage than starting on the pole.

Taking in the reality of that starting lineup and pit stall situation, especially at Bristol, could have major implications for Kyle and the rest of the field. Look, I know nothing is ever set in stone in the NASCAR Cup Series, but let’s be honest. Last weekend Kyle broke his fifty-one-race winless streak and carries the momentum into this weekend from that win. Of course, everyone knows that doesn’t mean much when it comes to the actual race, but it does mean he is taking that momentum to a place where he generally performs well.

Naturally, there are other factors involved in what the weather did, the field having to start according to the rulebook metrics, and how the rest of the field lines up. If nothing else, it should make it very interesting, depending on how things go.

One of the interesting things from my view about how the race will start is that Joey Logano starts on the front row with Larson. Logano and Larson both scored a bunch of points last weekend and led the most laps between them. They also battled each other for much of the race for the win. Last weekend, Logano started on the pole, with Larson outside him on the front row. This weekend, those roles are reversed. As a fan, I don’t know that that will have any bearing at all on how this one will go from the drop of the green flag, or when the checkered flag drops at the finish.

I almost hate to bring this up, but Denny Hamlin starts from the third position, just nine points ahead of Larson, who gained five spots in the points standings with his win last weekend. That means the drama will be heightened as this race progresses.

In fact, there are several drivers starting in the top fifteen that could end the day with a win. That wouldn’t be all that much of a surprise, since that area is full of Chasers looking for a win. Let’s not forget that a winner from outside The Chase could also happen. That makes things even more interesting, especially in a night race at Bristol on a Saturday night.

As a quick side note, William Byron, Carson Hocevar, and Alex Bowman start fourth, fifth, and sixth, and all three are quite capable of winning. Of course, Byron has had his share of difficulties in this part of the season, but he did manage a good finish last weekend, even though he once again faced difficulties during the earlier parts of the race. I can’t help but wonder if this might be his time to take his first win in 2026, much like Larson broke through last weekend. Of course his results won’t be as dramatic as Larson’s, but he could still make a pretty good leap back into contention. After all, we are only three races in.

Carson Hocevar is once again my possible dark horse winner. If he pulls off a victory, that would definitely shake things up in The Chase. The same goes for Bubba Wallace starting tenth. Should he take the win, it would be a second Toyota to win in the first three races of The Chase. That would really shake things up in this fan’s opinion.

Once again, there are so many possibilities in this Bristol night race that it is hard to get a real grip on which of the drivers might win. Christopher Bell quickly comes to mind as well as Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, and even Ryan Preece. Some Long shots for this one, at least from this fan’s view, are Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, and Tyler Reddick. Sure, I know there are others, but I just didn’t want to list most of the rest of the field.

Looking at this Bristol night race, and how things often go here, I suppose it could go much like last weekend. Who knows, but that it might be another battle between Larson and Logano, with either the same or reversed result at the finish. I don’t have any idea how it will finish, but I am sure it will be intense…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time…

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Chase race one is in the books. Now the Cup teams move on to Chase race two at the World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway. Things have definitely changed quite a bit from where they were before last week’s race. Oh sure, Denny Hamlin is still on top, but his points lead has changed. Last week he had a good lead over second place of twenty-four points. This week, it is twenty-four points between him and fourth place. That is a big difference for just one weekend, and it really tightens things between first and fourth. After that, things loosen up a little, but still, it is only forty-nine points between first and seventh.

After finishing seven times in second place, Christopher Bell finally broke through for his first win in the 2026 season and jumped four places in the standings to second behind Hamlin. I know it is only one race into the Chase, but that is impressive for more than one reason. The main reason is that he has been one of the most consistent finishers this season, and starting off the Chase with a win could mean there is more in store for him.

Yeah, I realize you can’t tell a lot from just one race, but there is a thing called momentum. In the Chase format, momentum can mean a lot moving into the next few races. That is where the rubber meets the road, and only after a few more races will we actually know where that momentum leads. Unfortunately, every week could be a one-off for several drivers, and the points race could change accordingly.

I mean, take a look at the starting lineup for today’s race. Joey Logano took the pole, and Kyle Larson starts beside him on the front row. Why is that such a big deal? Well, from this fan’s view, they are seventh and eighth in the Chase Standings. One is a Ford, and the other is a Chevy. One has two wins, and the other has no wins in 2026. Their starting spots could by no means have anything at all to do with how the race will end. But it could.

After observing the practice and the qualifying, the Penske Fords did appear to have good grip on the track, and both Logano and Ryan Blaney had good speed in practice and both qualified well, Logano on the pole and Blaney third.

I can’t help but ask this next question. Is it possible that Kyle Larson will break out of his slump of no wins? I mean, it has been fifty-some races since he has visited Victory Lane. That’s a long time and not something any of us expected. Yeah, I realize the Chevys have been working through adapting to a new body style, but for Kyle, the new body style hasn’t been his only problem. He has three DNFs this season, and some of them have come when he was running well and having a good race.

I know I’m repeating myself, but for Kyle and his teammate, William Byron, if it weren’t for bad luck, they’d have no luck at all. Byron’s luck turned against him again last weekend with engine problems. That dropped him all the way to the sixteenth spot in the Chase. That was only a drop of three places, but he really didn’t get many points at all. He definitely has a deep hole to dig himself out of, and his qualifying for this week wasn’t great either. He starts twenty-fourth.

There is a possible dark horse starting in the sixth spot, and that is Carson Hocevar. I know he hasn’t been finishing all that well, but he has shown speed just about every weekend. That speed hasn’t necessarily carried over to the end of a race, but he is definitely someone who could pull off the unexpected win.

Okay, I could go on talking about many different drivers, but for this race, I can’t ignore the fact that the Toyotas qualified fourth, fifth, seventh, ninth, and tenth. Four of those are JGR Toyotas, and we all know how they’ve been running this season. There is a fifth Toyota in those top ten, and it is the 23XI Toyota of Bubba Wallace. He is another this fan considers like Hocevar. He has been running well and could be the one in Victory Lane when this one is finished.

It is hard to discount how the Toyotas might fare in today’s race. In fact, I think they are expected to be running up front by many, at least by the end of the race. Where exactly they will be is an unanswered question that will be answered when the final checkered flag falls. Will it be a Ford, a Chevy, or a Toyota sitting in Victory Lane? Will it be one of the expected drivers, or will it be a total surprise winner? Will the Chase standings be completely changed up, or will they stay pretty much the same? That, my friends, are the questions, and we won’t know the answers until this one is over…

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time…

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The biggest question on everyone’s mind, at least from this fan’s view, is which of the drivers will be at the biggest disadvantage as the 2026 NASCAR Cup Chase kicks off at Darlington Raceway. Weather has set the field up in a peculiar way, and the Chase drivers are spread throughout the complete field. There was no practice and no qualifying, and that means the field is set by NASCAR’s matrix. It also means that the entire field will start the race with their notes from the spring race and the best guess the engineers could come up with as they unloaded off the trucks for this one. That’s a heck of a way to start the first race of the Chase.

Looking at the situation from a very negative perspective, I would say that gives some an advantage and puts others at a very distinct disadvantage. The first real advantage goes to Tyler Reddick since he will be starting on the pole, more because of the weather rather than actual qualifying speed.

Now, listen. I’m not saying he may not have taken the pole anyway. I’m just saying he got the first positive break to start this 2026 Chase. Judging from the way they ran in the spring race and the overall performance of Toyotas in general this season, this could mean Tyler Reddick could come away with a win and points advantage after this one is over. I know he has also struggled during the summer months, but he seems to have turned things around a bit. Will this give him the boost he needs to start strong as the Chase begins, much like his start to this year, or will it be a day of disappointment? Honestly, from this fan’s view, I think it could go either way.

As I mentioned earlier, the sixteen Chase drivers are scattered throughout the entire field, and some are starting as far back as thirty-fourth and thirty-fifth. That would be Carson Hocevar and Chris Beuscher. It may not mean anything at all, and the Southern 500 is a long race, but that is a tough place to start from with so many of them starting in the top twenty or so. Say what you will, but they have a lot of ground to make up.

The JGR Toyotas do seem to be well placed in the field, and that could bode well for them over some of the other teams. The way the JGR and 23XI teams have been running and are starting today could mean trouble for the rest of the Chasers as they start mostly in the top twenty.

The best of the Hendrick teams isn’t even in the Chase, and that is Alex Bowman, starting tenth. Of the other three, Chase Elliott has the best starting spot, but that is eighteenth. William Byron starts twentieth, and Kyle Larson starts twenty-fifth. When I consider their season, I have to say they are definitely at a disadvantage as they start this season’s Chase.

When I look at Byron and Larson individually, I see a couple of teams that seem to be struggling. That doesn’t mean they haven’t had moments of running well, but the story of their season, at least from this fan’s view, has been different than their usual performance. I’m not saying they haven’t had their moments of running well. What I am saying is that they just haven’t always finished well in the closing laps of races where it looked like they were going to finish well. It makes me wonder if their fortunes might change as they enter into the Chase. If the past races of this season show mediocre performance, could it be that they suddenly begin to win races and become honest-to-goodness contenders for the championship?

That may be a pipe dream for the Hendrick Chevys, and I include Chase Elliott in this discussion. The Hendrick teams have definitely struggled during this 2026 season, but they are the Hendrick teams, and things could change as quickly as today’s race.

There are a lot of unknowns as the 16 Chasers take to the track at Darlington today. No doubt Darlington is a challenge for all. A lot of unexpected things can happen today and very well could make a difference in the way the next races in the Chase end up.

So, what do you think? Is it going to be business as usual with the Toyotas kind of leading the way while the Chevys and Fords continue to struggle? Well, many of the Fords, except for Ryan Blaney’s Penske Ford. He has been running well almost every week, even if he hasn’t always finished well.

I don’t know about you, but I think this could be one of the most interesting races we’ve seen, especially after the weather canceled the qualifying and spread the Chasers everywhere throughout the starting field. Could it be that someone other than a Chaser wins today? Yeah, that’s a possibility, and wouldn’t that make things even more interesting…?

Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… See ya next time…