Showtime at Vegas              

From a NASCAR Fan’s View

The Cup Teams take to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and from the looks of it, the Toyotas have brought something to the show that looks ominous. Well, that is from paying attention to the practice and the qualifying. Of course, that is a matter of this fan’s opinion, along with the obvious results shown by the Toyota camp in general.

If we just look at the qualifying results, the Toyotas hold the top four starting spots, and then there is Kyle Larson starting in fifth. From this fan’s view, that looks a lot like the Toyotas could rule the day, and especially Christopher Bell, who took his fifteenth pole in the Cup series by taking this one at Las Vegas. In fact, he looked very strong in the practice session and then qualified on the pole with a strong lap ahead of the rest of the field.

The JGR Toyotas of Bell, Hamlin, and Gibbs all looked like they came to leave the rest of the field in the rearview mirror as all three ran fast in practice and all three ran fast in qualifying. Bubba Wallace of 23XI racing, associated with JGR, rounded out the top four spots. If that doesn’t look like trouble to the rest of the field when it comes to the race, I don’t know what it will take to get their attention.

Tyler Reddick, also of 23XI Racing, qualified seventh, and that pretty well stacks the top ten with a bunch of fast Toyotas. Of course, we all know Reddick won the first three races of the 2026 season, and it isn’t outside the reach of reality to think he might pull off another win at Vegas, which would make four out of five for the Toyota driver in his strong start to this season.

So, am I saying I expect him to win at Vegas this weekend? No, absolutely not. What I am saying is that with five Toyotas starting in the top seven and the way he’s started off the year, his chances are very good.

Thankfully, there were a couple of drivers who also qualified reasonably well, and that was Kyle Larson in fifth and Ryan Blaney in sixth. Either of them could make a race of it against the Toyotas by the time this one winds down to the final laps, but I’m not so sure they will this time.

All of the Chevys have been adapting to their new body style, and Kyle has been among the strugglers. It does look as though he and his team are beginning to get a grip on that new style, but it has definitely been a tough road so far. They just haven’t shown the speed and have been lacking long-run speed almost every week. I won’t go into his bouts with bad racing luck in the first two races of this season, but it has definitely had its effect on his finishes.

After last week’s finish of third, and since Las Vegas is one of his best tracks, maybe, just maybe, he could show some of the Kyle Larson magic this weekend and outrun the Toyotas. I don’t know that that will happen because the Toyotas do look awfully strong, but it is possible that he and his crew chief, Cliff Daniels, could make the changes necessary to bring their Chevy up to being competitive with the Toyotas.

Ryan Blaney, on the other hand, only qualified sixth, but he dominated the field last weekend at Phoenix. In fact, he was really only pressed by Christopher Bell, the pole sitter for this Vegas race. I’m not saying it could be another showdown between those two, but I do think there is a possibility of that happening. Of course, there is always the ever-present Denny Hamlin, who has been struggling this season but has always shown up with a fast car. He could very likely be in the mix, especially when it comes down to the final laps.

There are others that could surprise us all with a win today. By saying that, I’m not picking any winner; I’m just mentioning some possibilities in case the expected dominators have problems or situations out of their control. You know, those things like errors in the pits and accidents that manage to gather them in.

So, Bubba Wallace has shown speed and could be due to take a win. The same goes for Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece, and William Byron. In fact, I could probably name several more, but I won’t simply because there are so many. What I will say is, I kinda expect the winner to be in a Toyota, more because of how practice and qualifying ended up. Anything can happen, and there is still that possible situation with tires, and it could affect just about any of them. It hasn’t shown its ugly head yet, but…